Depopulation remains 'a real threat to our rural communities' despite new study
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Depopulation has been described as “a real threat to our rural communities” despite a new study indicating that more people are choosing to live away from Scotland's urban areas.
North MSP Maree Todd called for increased efforts to attract and retain people to sustain rural areas and help them thrive.
At the same time, a Caithness councillor warned that "a lot of people are worried about the future for the county" and urged the Scottish Government to act over broadband rollout, hospital services and trunk road improvements.
Ms Todd was commenting on a new report assessing changes in population across Scotland during the pandemic. It has caused experts to note an apparent reversal of long-term trends, with a small shift away from the cities.
The study by National Records of Scotland (NRS) observed that over the past year the number of people living in large urban areas had fallen by 5600 (down 0.3 per cent). In contrast, the populations of rural areas, small towns and other urban areas had either increased or fallen more slowly than previously.
The report – Small Area Population Estimates Mid-2021 – looked at almost 7000 small geographical areas, or “data zones”, with an average population of 786 people. A map allows population changes to be tracked by over one, five or 10 years.
In Caithness, some data zones have had an increase in population over the past decade while others have seen a decline.
Ms Todd, the SNP MSP for Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, said: “While it’s positive to see slight population increases in pockets of Caithness, I’m conscious of the population decline in other parts – with some areas seeing a decline of nearly 15 per cent since 2015 figures.
“Depopulation is a real threat to our rural communities and requires intervention from the local authority and both governments.
“The UK government’s hostile immigration system and Brexit has inflicted untold damage on our rural communities, showing exactly why we in Scotland need to be in charge of our own immigration system.
“We need to focus on attracting and retaining people to sustain our rural communities and enable them to thrive.
“Creating high-quality, high-paid job opportunities will be central to this, but affordable housing options, suitable transport and digital infrastructure and access to public services will also be significant contributors.
“The Scottish Government has set out a programme of work in its first national population strategy which looks to address these challenges by harnessing new opportunities for our rural communities.”
Matthew Reiss, who represents Thurso and Northwest Caithness on Highland Council, said it was up to the Scottish Government to take action to support the far north.
“I was talking to a group of people in the Barrock area two days ago and they told me how concerned they were about rural areas," he said.
“The example they gave me was that Crossroads Primary School has dropped this year from 13 pupils to eight, and there are no P1s and there are no P7s.
“A lot of people are worried about the future for the county.”
Councillor Reiss pointed to data for the period 2012-2016 covering 10 towns in the Highlands and Islands and Moray which showed a two per cent fall in Thurso's population – more than any other.
“Two or three years ago I was criticised for voicing my concerns about depopulation," he said. "The argument was that if you publicise bad news it doesn't help the area, and anyway these are only projections.
“But that chart is not a projection – it's fact."
Councillor Reiss added: “My own opinion is that there are several basic things the Scottish Government could do to help the far north.
“One is to absolutely light a fire under the broadband rollout. R100 [the Reaching 100 per cent programme] has been put back for some areas to 2026/27, and that could be changed with a government push.
“The second one is to resolve the maternity situation at Wick. With over 90 per cent of mothers having to give birth in Inverness, that is not an attractive proposition to potential mums.
“The other thing that really would help the far north is that Transport Scotland / Scottish Government have said quite up front there are no plans to improve or modernise any of the A9 or A99 north of Tain for the next 20 years.
“These are three things that the government has the power to act on, and could act if they chose to.”
Raymond Bremner, the Highland Council leader and a member for Wick and East Caithness, said: "The data zones are hugely interesting. It would appear that, just in the past two years, the information looks to be pointing at growth in nearly every rural area in Caithness and some small growth in a few town areas, and that this appears to be a consistent trend since 2011.
"There are few areas seeing a reduction and mainly around a small number of areas in our towns. I remember I was surprised to hear in a local education report earlier this year that our high school here in Wick may be over capacity soon and that, contrary to previous reports of forecast population decline, we may be witnessing a reversal of the trend already.
"That would be good news for our community and economy but will need to be reviewed by local authorities, agencies and organisations in respect of what this means for local economic support going forward.
"I’d be interested in seeing how we can develop these views and considerations with those local organisations, including Highlands and Islands Enterprise and Caithness and North Sutherland Regeneration Partnership, as soon as possible.”
NRS statistician Esther Roughsedge said: “The population of small geographical areas changes over time for many reasons, including births and deaths as well as migration inwards and outwards.
“Every council area has pockets of population growth and decline. In the latest year, the largest proportions of data zones increasing in population were mainly in rural and island council areas.
“This is quite different to the patterns we saw the previous year.”
The report found that most people still live in large urban areas (38 per cent) and other urban areas (34 per cent).
