ANALYSIS: Did the row over Kate Forbes' deeply-held religious beliefs turn the race to become SNP leader and Scotland's next First Minister in Humza Yousaf's favour?
Register for free to read more of the latest local news. It's easy and will only take a moment.
When Kate Forbes, Scotland’s finance minister, declared her intention to stand in the SNP leadership contest on February 20, many felt she was already the candidate to beat.
Intelligent, astute, with proven credibility in Government, the Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP seemed to have it all as the SNP sought to fill the chasm left by Nicola Sturgeon's shock departure.
That perception would begin to dissolve in a storm of controversy within a matter of hours.
By that same evening, media interviews seemed to dramatically alter the Highland MSP’s image as a natural Nicola Sturgeon successor and the bright, young face and future of the nationalist party.
In discussions with several media outlets in the next few days, most notably Channel 4 news, the brutally honest disclosure of a number of fundamental core beliefs set her socially conservative instincts firmly to the fore of the campaign narrative.
While these were no surprise to anyone who had taken more than a passing interest in the evangelical Christian’s political career, the manner in which they were forcefully voiced jarred uncomfortably with the Scottish National Party’s self-image as socially liberal and progressive.
Immediate messages of support for her candidacy had at first been plentiful from a variety of senior figures, including Highland MP Drew Hendry and Moray MSP Richard Lochhead.
Veteran SNP MP Pete Wishart tweeted his endorsement that day, saying he hoped Ms Forbes was not deterred from standing by “all this rubbish about her religious beliefs."
By that same evening, though, having witnessed her media interviews, Mr Wishart's tone changed dramatically and he tweeted: "Kate had every chance to say that she would be prepared to come in behind the party's social liberal agenda. It looks like she wasn’t prepared to take it. There’s only one place to go now."
As controversy deepened, other expressions of support were withdrawn. Ivan McKee, the business minister, stepped back from his leading role in Ms Forbes’ campaign.
Ms Forbes first told the BBC she had significant concerns over gender self-identification and, had she not been on maternity leave, would have voted against Nicola Sturgeon’s bill promoting it in law.
She told another press interviewer that she was against gay marriage "as a matter of conscience" and doubled down on those statements in the evening, telling Channel 4 marriage “is between a man and a woman”.
By Tuesday, Drew Hendry and several others had publicly withdrawn support.
Further interviews confirmed Ms Forbes’ view that “a trans woman is a biological male” and raised concerns about her anti-abortion beliefs and views on conversion therapy – the discredited process of attempting to change an individual’s sexual orientation or gender identity.
Ms Forbes would later qualify her comments by stressing that none of her personal religious views would impinge on democratic party policy or prompt her to unravel progressive policies, but by now it was clear that there were sharp dividing lines between finance secretary and her fellow minister Mr Yousaf.
She emphasised that the public were crying out for politicians to be honest about their beliefs and, as the furore ebbed and debate moved on, there was a sense she had cleverly nipped it all in the bud by airing the issue of her personal beliefs at an early juncture, during the first week of the campaign.
As she and her supporters had regrouped, her campaign seemed to gather a head of steam and, by the time STV held their live televised debate on March 7, it seemed momentum had swung bakc in her favour.
In a bruising “gloves off” discussion between the three candidates, Ms Forbes’ message that “continuity won’t cut it” seemed to resonate powerfully.
In what provided the most jaw-dropping moments of the debate, she turned her fire firmly on Mr Yousaf’s personal record, suggesting that in his transport and health ministerial portfolios he had presided over were disastrous.
In what was comparable in venom to an attack by an opposition party leader, she stated: ‘When you were a transport minister the trains were never on time. When you were justice minister the police were strained to breaking point. And now, as health minister, we’ve got record high waiting times. What makes you think you can do a better job as First Minister?’”
Mr Yousaf responded by caricaturing Ms Forbes as a candidate who would drag the SNP to the right of politics.
The two pivotal moments of the campaign, detailed above, helped shape the outcome of what is arguably a 'Sliding Doors' moment for Scotland's future. It is impossible to say for sure, but it seems Ms Forbes, for all the praise and support that greeted her hustings performances, never quite recovered from early controversy.
Her ambitions to succeed Nicola Sturgeon after eight years and four months in office fell flat – albeit by a narrow majority – and, it seems in the end, continuity did cut it, at least with enough of the SNP's falling membership as Mr Yusaf secured a historic passage to power as Europe's first Muslim national leader.
