Lockdown in the Highlands should be eased now say group of north politicians – although local MSP disagrees
The centralised approach to easing the lockdown by the Scottish Government is not working for the Highlands and a different approach should be embraced according to a number of north politicians.
In a bid to meet the specific economic and social needs of the region, Liberal Democrats in the Highland have called for a so-called health risk matrix that could free-up a number of businesses safely.
The move has been given added urgency as dire forecasts of the impact of the lockdown on the economy pile up from Scotland’s chief economist predicting it could take years to return to pre-coronavirus levels.
Then on Friday the Office of National Statistics released figures that showed GDP in April fell by the largest margin ever recorded – 20.4 per cent – while the International Monetary Fund predicts 2020 will see the deepest recession since the 1930s.
Key to the matrix drafted by Black Isle Councillor Gordon Adam is recognising a sector by sector approach is not always appropriate, and balancing risk by looking at the real dangers of certain activities.
By doing that, he argues, the government could ease some areas that yield economic benefits without a high risk of the infection spreading – an outcome he recognises as potentially disastrous.
“This raises a number of issues,” he said. “As far as safety is concerned people are scared because they don’t know how safe or how dangerous different activities are, which is really the point of the matrix.
“For instance there is a huge difference between having a caravan park open or a self-catering establishment and having a B&B open – the danger of transmission is considerably greater with a B&B and yet they're all in phase three.
“Opening cinemas is in phase three – that makes no sense on public health grounds, it is infinitely more dangerous to go into a cinema even with social distancing than it is to have a self-catering establishment.
“Think about this – in the Highlands, if you crunch the numbers, fewer than 10 people of economically active age, in other words those under 65, have died from Covid-19 – fewer than 10 people is less than one person per week.
“Yet the whole futures, the economic, social, educational futures of a whole generation or generations of people have been turned upside down so they really do need to think about a regional approach to this which is what has been done in Ireland.
“It's increasingly being done in England, but it is not so far on the agenda in Scotland, which is not entirely surprising because the Scottish Government is very centralised.
“The other thing which is crazy is this five mile travel limit which makes no sense to the Highlands no sense whatsoever. In Ireland they recently sent said within every province or county of Ireland you can travel as much as you want.
“And this situation is the same in Italy or France and other areas, which usually have remote sparsely populated areas, which are deemed to be low risk, they're given a Red-Amber-Green rating but that's not been done here.
“I think the Highlands, which is different, is really suffering because of that. We form a third of the land mass of Scotland, we have a very large area with a very small population and we've a very very fragile economy.
“Depopulation is what I'm worried about. There is a real danger that if they don't get the balance of risks right there's going to be a big problem ahead and it's not as if they don't know this.
“The experts have been telling them this but so far they haven't taken this particular advice, they have followed the much more cautious strand of advice which is kill Covid-19 and let's worry about the economy later.”
Inverness-based economist Tony Mackay agrees the idea of locally easing the lockdown has merit because of the low rate of infection in the north, saying: “I think this is a good proposal for rural areas such as the Highlands but probably not for urban areas like Glasgow and Aberdeen.
“We have had relatively few coronavirus infections and deaths here in the Highlands. That suggests that allowing local residents to do more, such as using more local shops and restaurants, is not a significant risk. However, the easing should not apply to visitors from outwith the region because they may present higher risks.
“Many local businesses in the Highlands are in serious trouble because of their dependence on tourism. Some easing for local customers could allow them to prepare for when the overall lockdown is over and also give them much needed income in the meantime.”
North MSP Gail Ross, however, was not in favour of easing the lockdown regionally as she warned against anything that could risk infecting the Highlands’ elderly population with Covid-19.
“Although the Highlands has seen a relatively low number of cases, that has been due to people following the advice and sticking to the guidelines. Easing lockdown has to happen in phases and I would be extremely cautious about using us as a pilot for a regional approach.
“We have a high proportion of elderly people living here, many of whom are already nervous about the number of people out and about both from here and from other places.
“I am acutely aware of the fragile position many of our local businesses are in but easing measures too quickly may mean a rapid increase in transmission and a return to phase zero, rather than phase one.”
Click here for more news
